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In the second quarter economic data will be unveiled at the occasion of the 16th, more and more market voice shows the trend of economic recovery has been established.
Many experts believe that the beginning of the second quarter, the economy will be much better than the second half of the economy will increase the channel, while fiscal policy should remain positive, monetary policy tightening might be some hints.
Recovery trend is expected to establish
6 the end of National Bureau of Statistics Web site published a signed "with Xin Guo," the article that, according to 4,5 months of major economic indicators of performance and trend analysis, second quarter GDP is expected to be close to 8%, showing a more obvious only or recovery trend.
Some of the data in the June announcement, the Chinese economy has bottomed out from time to time appeared in press statements. From the first announcement of the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) data, in June manufacturing PMI was 53.2% higher than the 0.1 percentage points in May, for 4 months, 50% higher than the critical point, indicating an expansion in the economy . Meanwhile, the June increase of 3.59% of the electricity generation data can provide the basis for judging the economic recovery.
"From the current situation, the economic situation is better than expected, especially in the May data were published, consumption and investment data increased rapidly, indicating the economy has bottomed out, but the recovery of the foundation is still not solid. "SW Securities Research Institute, chief analyst Gui Haoming said.
"We expect second quarter GDP growth will reach 7.7%." BNP Paribas Capital (Asia) Co., Ltd. Mon former senior economist, said, "This judge is mainly based on two analysis, one domestic investment growth, fast credit growth, with significant recovery in investment-related industries; the other hand, the domestic real estate, consumer durables consumption data is also better than expected. if exports do not continue to worsen if the trend of economic growth would be more determined. "
Original forecast, according to Meng, the second half of the economy will accelerate the upward trend in the third quarter GDP growth is expected to reach 8.6%, fourth quarter GDP growth will reach 9.6%.
Galaxy Securities analyst Hao Daming macroeconomic analysis, based on the first 5 months of operation of major economic indicators, Galaxy Securities that in the second quarter's economic growth will reach 6.9%, urban fixed asset investment growth rate will reach 35% growth in consumption 15%, exports will remain at low levels will drop to 21%.
The possibility of increasing appreciation of the renminbi
But with the economic recovery may also have new problems. Hao Daming that the pressure of RMB appreciation may re-emerge in the second half, first, a long-term trend of RMB appreciation because of economic growth, interrupted only temporarily, an increase of problem solving must back up after the channel; Second, as the economy improved, will attract international hot money inflows, increased pressure of RMB appreciation.
After the revaluation will increase the plight of exporters, SW in the published report that exports the most fundamental determinants of good and bad, is the international market for Chinese commodities demand.
Report said: "We expect the United States and other major economies in the fourth quarter of this year will be noticeable signs of recovery, which will bring China's exports rebound in exports of the constraints on the role of the exchange rate will be mitigated. But take into account the overall export is not very good, we think that end of the year appreciation of the renminbi back channel, will take an exploratory approach. 2010 RMB appreciation in the range of 2%, significantly accelerated only after 2011. "
Tightening of monetary policy or to suggest
Although the economic rebound has been the market's positive trend, but the economic situation of risk for the development of inclusion in the second half of the policy more difficult.
Early this year, some experts have proposed, "4000000000000" economic stimulus plan, the need to expand the economic stimulus package to help China's economic recession. In this regard, macroeconomic analyst at Ping An Securities Sun Fong Hung said the government should not be in the second half may not have a larger rate of expansion, otherwise it will result in weak growth next year or the year after.
"Now from the national financial point of view, the pressure is very large. Would be more difficult this year to 3% of the annual fiscal deficit target, we expect the deficit level will be about 4.9%, close to 150 billion yuan." However, Bangladesh original view , the proactive fiscal policy will continue in the second half. People's Bank of
Secretary Petrus Cheung, published in the 6 "China's financial" the author pointed out that China's economic situation will continue to improve the short term, little risk of inflation, monetary policy, short-term need for major adjustments.
